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Spartanii Selemet vs Dacia-Buiucani — Super Liga 2026

Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
8/9/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 8Stadionul Suruceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Spartanii Selemet28%
×Draw23%
Dacia-Buiucani48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartanii Selemet
1.31
Dacia-Buiucani
1.78

Dacia-Buiucani creates 36% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 73 away

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet
1.13
Dacia-Buiucani
1.19

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet
2.37
Dacia-Buiucani
1.49

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par
Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Dacia-Buiucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw
52%
Spartanii Selemet or Dacia-Buiucani
77%
Draw or Dacia-Buiucani
72%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
12%
Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
73%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
38%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
14%
Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
83%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
53%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
37%
Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.37 · 46 matches

Dacia-Buiucani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.49 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.13 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dacia-Buiucani attack 1.19 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more
28%
level
23%
Dacia-Buiucani scores more
48%

Dacia-Buiucani at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dacia-Buiucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartanii Selemet vs Dacia-Buiucani

Dacia-Buiucani beat Spartanii Selemet 1-0 in Super Liga on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Suruceni in Suruceni.