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Dacia-Buiucani vs Spartanii Selemet — Super Liga 2026

Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
8/17/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 3Baza Zimbru 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dacia-Buiucani54%
×Draw23%
Spartanii Selemet24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia-Buiucani
1.88
Spartanii Selemet
1.18

Dacia-Buiucani creates 59% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 48 away

creates per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.42
Spartanii Selemet
1.00

allows per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.36
Spartanii Selemet
2.33

finishing

Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia-Buiucani ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dacia-Buiucani or draw
76%
Dacia-Buiucani or Spartanii Selemet
77%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
46%

Winning margin

Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
31%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
85%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
56%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
29%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
69%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
33%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
69%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia-Buiucani at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia-Buiucani attack 1.42 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dacia-Buiucani scores more
54%
level
23%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
24%

Dacia-Buiucani at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dacia-Buiucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dacia-Buiucani vs Spartanii Selemet

Spartanii Selemet beat Dacia-Buiucani 1-0 in Super Liga on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Baza Zimbru 2 in Chişinău.