Spartanii Selemet 2–3 CSF Bălți: Result & Stats

Spartanii Selemet

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

CSF Bălți

3/16/2025

Super Liga · Championship Round - 2Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Spartanii Selemet31%

×Draw24%

CSF Bălți45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartanii SelemetExpected goals in this matchCSF Bălți

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.69

Spartanii Selemet

1.37

CSF Bălți

1.69

CSF Bălți creates 23% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 69 away

1.13

creates per match

1.01

2.37

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet

1.13

CSF Bălți

1.01

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet

2.37

CSF Bălți

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

CSF Bălți →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw

55%

Spartanii Selemet or CSF Bălți

76%

Draw or CSF Bălți

69%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+

14%

CSF Bălți wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals

75%

Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals

40%

Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals

16%

CSF Bălți 1+ goals

82%

CSF Bălți 2+ goals

50%

CSF Bălți 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)

41%

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.37 · 46 matches

CSF Bălți away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.13 + CSF Bălți defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

CSF Bălți attack 1.01 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more

31%

level

24%

CSF Bălți scores more

45%

CSF Bălți at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSF Bălți will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff