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CSF Bălți vs Spartanii Selemet — Super Liga 2026

CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
4/26/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Round - 7Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

CSF Bălți52%
×Draw23%
Spartanii Selemet24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSF Bălți
1.77
Spartanii Selemet
1.13

CSF Bălți creates 57% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 48 away

creates per match

CSF Bălți
1.21
Spartanii Selemet
1.00

allows per match

CSF Bălți
1.25
Spartanii Selemet
2.33

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw
76%
CSF Bălți or Spartanii Selemet
77%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
48%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+
29%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals
83%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
53%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
26%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
68%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
31%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
68%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 1.21 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + CSF Bălți defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CSF Bălți scores more
52%
level
23%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
24%

CSF Bălți at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSF Bălți will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSF Bălți vs Spartanii Selemet

CSF Bălți and Spartanii Selemet drew 3-3 in Super Liga on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Bălţi.