Spartaks Jurmala 1–2 Auda: Result & Stats

Spartaks Jurmala

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Auda

4/24/2022

Virsliga · Round 8LNK Sporta Parks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Spartaks Jurmala34%

×Draw25%

Auda41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartaks JurmalaExpected goals in this matchAuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.52

Spartaks Jurmala

1.35

Auda

1.52

Auda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 84 away

1.63

creates per match

1.27

1.78

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Spartaks Jurmala

1.63

Auda

1.27

allows per match

Spartaks Jurmala

1.78

Auda

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par

Auda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartaks Jurmala ↓

Auda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Spartaks Jurmala or draw

59%

Spartaks Jurmala or Auda

75%

Draw or Auda

66%

Winning margin

Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+

15%

Auda wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals

74%

Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals

39%

Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals

15%

Auda 1+ goals

78%

Auda 2+ goals

45%

Auda 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)

45%

Auda (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartaks Jurmala at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

Auda away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.63 + Auda defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

Auda attack 1.27 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartaks Jurmala scores more

34%

level

25%

Auda scores more

41%

Auda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Auda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff