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Auda vs Spartaks Jurmala — Virsliga 2019

Auda
Auda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
11/6/2022VirsligaVirsliga · Round 35Mežaparks Sports Village

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Auda51%
×Draw23%
Spartaks Jurmala26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auda
1.79
Spartaks Jurmala
1.20

Auda creates 49% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 52 away

creates per match

Auda
1.52
Spartaks Jurmala
1.29

allows per match

Auda
1.10
Spartaks Jurmala
2.06

finishing

Auda+0.00on par
Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auda ↓

Spartaks Jurmala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Auda or draw
74%
Auda or Spartaks Jurmala
77%
Draw or Spartaks Jurmala
49%

Winning margin

Auda wins by 2+
28%
Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Auda 1+ goals
83%
Auda 2+ goals
53%
Auda 3+ goals
26%
Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
70%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
34%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Auda (draw refunded)
67%
Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auda at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 82 matches

Spartaks Jurmala away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auda attack 1.52 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.29 + Auda defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Auda scores more
51%
level
23%
Spartaks Jurmala scores more
26%

Auda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Auda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: Auda 0–1 Spartaks Jurmala

Spartaks Jurmala beat Auda 1-0 in Virsliga on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Mežaparks Sports Village in Riga.