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Spartak Varna vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
CANC
00:00
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
3/21/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Spartak Varna56%
×Draw25%
Spartak Pleven19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
1.59
Spartak Pleven
0.82

Spartak Varna creates 94% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 75 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
1.74
Spartak Pleven
0.83

allows per match

Spartak Varna
0.81
Spartak Pleven
1.45

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
81%
Spartak Varna or Spartak Pleven
75%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
44%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
30%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
80%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
47%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
21%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
56%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
20%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
74%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.45 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.74 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Spartak Pleven attack 0.83 + Spartak Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
56%
level
25%
Spartak Pleven scores more
19%

Spartak Varna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Spartak Varna host Spartak Pleven

March 21, 2020: Spartak Varna take on Spartak Pleven in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Spartak Varna host Spartak Pleven at Stadion Spartak.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.