Spartak Pleven 2–1 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Spartak Pleven

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Spartak Varna

11/12/2023

Second League · Round 17Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Spartak Pleven41%

×Draw27%

Spartak Varna33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlevenExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.18

Spartak Pleven

1.35

Spartak Varna

1.18

Spartak Pleven creates 14% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 45 away

1.20

creates per match

1.29

1.06

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Spartak Pleven

1.20

Spartak Varna

1.29

allows per match

Spartak Pleven

1.06

Spartak Varna

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw

67%

Spartak Pleven or Spartak Varna

73%

Draw or Spartak Varna

59%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

19%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

74%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

39%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

15%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

69%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

33%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

55%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Spartak Varna defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Spartak Varna attack 1.29 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more

41%

level

27%

Spartak Varna scores more

33%

Spartak Pleven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff