Spartak Varna 1–4 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Septemvri Sofia

Berna 61'

N. Fontaine 90', 45'

A. Aruna 79'

V. Ochayi 39'

11/7/2025

First League · Round 15Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Spartak Varna41%

×Draw25%

Septemvri Sofia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.38

Spartak Varna

1.55

Septemvri Sofia

1.38

Spartak Varna creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.15

creates per match

0.96

1.80

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.15

Septemvri Sofia

0.96

allows per match

Spartak Varna

1.80

Septemvri Sofia

1.96

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.21scores more

Septemvri Sofia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

66%

Spartak Varna or Septemvri Sofia

75%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

59%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

21%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

79%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

46%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

20%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

75%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

40%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

55%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.80 · 14 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.15 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.55

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.96 + Spartak Varna defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

41%

level

25%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

34%

Spartak Varna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

N. Fontaine

Septemvri Sofia · M

9.0

Match Events

1'

26'

33'

39'

45+5'

E. Yanchev← I. Budinov

45'

N. Fontaine↳ G. Ivanov

49'

Galin Ivanov

57'

Damyan Yordanov

61'

Berna↳ D. Ivanov

64'

Maksym Kovalyov

65'

Bertrand Fourrier

68'

Yoan Baurenski

71'

D. Halachev← A. Georgiev

71'

D. Lozev← D. Ivanov

71'

G. Varbanov← S. Vasilev

71'

A. Aruna← M. Parra

75'

Georg Stojanovski

79'

A. Aruna↳ G. Ivanov

81'

Z. Pehlivanov← T. Marinov

81'

S. Moukachar← D. Yordanov

81'

K. Onasci← Y. Baurenski

81'

K. Serber← G. Ivanov

90+1'

S. Wade← B. Fourrier

90'

N. Fontaine↳ K. Serber

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakSeptemvri

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots14

1.72Expected Goals (xG)2.06

3Corners2

10Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots14

4On Target9

6Off Target4

5Blocked1

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

404Total Passes468

311Accurate Passes390

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls8

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1