Spartak Varna 4–2 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Septemvri Sofia

Xande 73'

Berna 53'

R. Ivey 30'

V. Mitev 22'

B. Rupanov 87' (pen)

G. Ivanov 64'

3/16/2025

First League · Round 25Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Spartak Varna41%

×Draw25%

Septemvri Sofia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.38

Spartak Varna

1.55

Septemvri Sofia

1.38

Spartak Varna creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.15

creates per match

0.96

1.80

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.15

Septemvri Sofia

0.96

allows per match

Spartak Varna

1.80

Septemvri Sofia

1.96

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.21scores more

Septemvri Sofia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

66%

Spartak Varna or Septemvri Sofia

75%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

59%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

21%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

79%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

46%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

20%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

75%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

40%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

55%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.80 · 14 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.15 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.55

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.96 + Spartak Varna defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

41%

level

25%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

34%

Spartak Varna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

22'

29'

30'

38'

46'

M. Polendakov← V. Ochayi

53'

Berna

58'

B. Fourrier← Alfons Amade

64'

G. Ivanov

68'

Xande← D. Mitkov

68'

P. Konaté← V. Mitev

71'

Xandro Schenk

73'

Xande

75'

G. Varbanov← M. Mitkov

75'

Vitinho← Moi Parra

80'

A. Tsvetkov← M. Stoev

80'

C. Ilić← A. Vutov

84'

Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo

87'

B. RupanovPenalty

90+2'

A. Georgiev← Berna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakSeptemvri

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots10

1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.11

6Corners9

10Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots10

8On Target3

5Off Target2

1Blocked5

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

292Total Passes377

226Accurate Passes312

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0