Spartak Varna 2–0 Maritsa Plovdiv: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Maritsa Plovdiv

9/3/2023

Second League · Round 8Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Spartak Varna60%

×Draw23%

Maritsa Plovdiv16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchMaritsa Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.78

Spartak Varna

1.75

Maritsa Plovdiv

0.78

Spartak Varna creates 124% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 52 away

1.63

creates per match

0.75

0.80

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.63

Maritsa Plovdiv

0.75

allows per match

Spartak Varna

0.80

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

84%

Spartak Varna or Maritsa Plovdiv

77%

Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv

40%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

34%

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

83%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

52%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

25%

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals

54%

Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals

18%

Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

79%

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.63 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 0.75 + Spartak Varna defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

60%

level

23%

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more

16%

Spartak Varna at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff