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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna — Second League 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
3/16/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv47%
×Draw25%
Spartak Varna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.56
Spartak Varna
1.16

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 34% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 46 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.54
Spartak Varna
1.26

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.06
Spartak Varna
1.59

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Spartak Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
72%
Maritsa Plovdiv or Spartak Varna
75%
Draw or Spartak Varna
53%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
24%
Spartak Varna wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
79%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
46%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
21%
Spartak Varna 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
32%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
62%
Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.54 + Spartak Varna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Spartak Varna attack 1.26 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
47%
level
25%
Spartak Varna scores more
28%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritsa Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna beat Maritsa Plovdiv 2-0 in Second League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Maritsa in Plovdiv.