Spartak Varna 0–0 Marek: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Marek

2/19/2022

Second League · Round 23Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Spartak Varna56%

×Draw26%

Marek18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchMarek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.72

Spartak Varna

1.51

Marek

0.72

Spartak Varna creates 110% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 69 away

1.74

creates per match

0.62

0.81

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.74

Marek

0.62

allows per match

Spartak Varna

0.81

Marek

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Marek+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Marek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

82%

Spartak Varna or Marek

74%

Draw or Marek

44%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

29%

Marek wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

78%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

44%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

19%

Marek 1+ goals

51%

Marek 2+ goals

16%

Marek 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

76%

Marek (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

Marek away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.74 + Marek defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.51

Marek attack 0.62 + Spartak Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

56%

level

26%

Marek scores more

18%

Spartak Varna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

20'

32'

39'

41'

46'

N. Ganchev← R. Mihalkov

56'

P. Ivanov← D. Georgiev

57'

D. Vladimirov← E. Iliev

58'

64'

70'

73'

74'

84'

G. Chukalov← G. Babaliev

84'

N. Ivanov← V. Lyubomirov

89'

G. Bozhilov

Spartak

Marek

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Petrov

74'▲D. Nachev←▼M. Mehmed

84'▲G. Chukalov←▼G. Babaliev

84'▲N. Ivanov←▼V. Lyubomirov

Spartak Varna substitutes

NachevChukalovIvanovSlavovIbryamChițanu

Manager: V. Pavlov

32'▲I. Vlahov←▼R. Gyonov

46'▲N. Ganchev←▼R. Mihalkov

56'▲P. Ivanov←▼D. Georgiev

57'▲D. Vladimirov←▼E. Iliev

Marek substitutes

VlahovGanchevIvanovVladimirovKyuchukovKostadinovLyubenov

Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Marek

Spartak Varna and Marek drew 0-0 in Second League on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.

Spartak Varna vs Marek — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Marek