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Marek vs Spartak Varna — Second League 2018

Marek
Marek
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
3/8/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marek46%
×Draw27%
Spartak Varna27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marek
1.40
Spartak Varna
1.00

Marek creates 40% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 45 away

creates per match

Marek
1.29
Spartak Varna
1.29

allows per match

Marek
0.71
Spartak Varna
1.51

finishing

Marek+0.00on par
Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Spartak Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Marek or draw
73%
Marek or Spartak Varna
73%
Draw or Spartak Varna
54%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+
22%
Spartak Varna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals
75%
Marek 2+ goals
41%
Marek 3+ goals
17%
Spartak Varna 1+ goals
63%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
26%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)
63%
Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 70 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 1.29 + Spartak Varna defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spartak Varna attack 1.29 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Marek scores more
46%
level
27%
Spartak Varna scores more
27%

Marek at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Marek 2–1 Spartak Varna

Marek beat Spartak Varna 2-1 in Second League on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Bonchuk in Dupnitsa.