Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets II — Second League 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
11/7/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 16Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Spartak Varna53%
×Draw26%
Ludogorets II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
1.54
Ludogorets II
0.86

Spartak Varna creates 79% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 131 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
1.67
Ludogorets II
0.93

allows per match

Spartak Varna
0.80
Ludogorets II
1.41

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Ludogorets II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
79%
Spartak Varna or Ludogorets II
74%
Draw or Ludogorets II
47%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
28%
Ludogorets II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
79%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
45%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
20%
Ludogorets II 1+ goals
58%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
21%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
72%
Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.41 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.67 + Ludogorets II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ludogorets II attack 0.93 + Spartak Varna defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
53%
level
26%
Ludogorets II scores more
21%

Spartak Varna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Spartak Varna 4–0 Ludogorets II

Spartak Varna beat Ludogorets II 4-0 in Second League on November 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.