Ludogorets II 1–4 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Ludogorets II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Spartak Varna

5/18/2024

Second League · Round 33Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ludogorets II49%

×Draw24%

Spartak Varna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ludogorets IIExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.17

Ludogorets II

1.68

Spartak Varna

1.17

Ludogorets II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 45 away

1.84

creates per match

1.29

1.05

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Ludogorets II

1.84

Spartak Varna

1.29

allows per match

Ludogorets II

1.05

Spartak Varna

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw

73%

Ludogorets II or Spartak Varna

76%

Draw or Spartak Varna

51%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

26%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

81%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

50%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

24%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

69%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

33%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

65%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.05 · 128 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.84 + Spartak Varna defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Spartak Varna attack 1.29 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ludogorets II scores more

49%

level

24%

Spartak Varna scores more

27%

Ludogorets II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff