Spartak Varna 3–2 Lokomotiv Sofia: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Lokomotiv Sofia

R. Ivey 90'

A. Ahmedov 59'

C. Ilić 28'

A. Brrou 13'

K. Stanoev 2'

10/6/2024

First League · Round 11Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Spartak Varna36%

×Draw26%

Lokomotiv Sofia38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.35

Spartak Varna

1.32

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

1.15

creates per match

0.91

1.80

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.15

Lokomotiv Sofia

0.91

allows per match

Spartak Varna

1.80

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.50

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.21scores more

Lokomotiv Sofia-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Lokomotiv Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

62%

Spartak Varna or Lokomotiv Sofia

74%

Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia

64%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

16%

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

73%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

38%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

15%

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

74%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

49%

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.80 · 14 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.50 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.15 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 0.91 + Spartak Varna defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

36%

level

26%

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

38%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

13'

17'

28'

29'

39'

47'

50'

54'

59'

A. Tsvetkov← Y. Baurenski

59'

A. Ahmedov

63'

Antonio Vutov

67'

V. Nikolov← A. Pitsolis

74'

S. Dikov← A. Aralica

74'

S. Traoré← A. Brrou

90+4'

Berna← A. Vutov

90+4'

R. Dimitrov← R. Ivey

90+1'

M. Orachev← Celso Raposo

90'

R. Ivey

Spartak5-4-1

Lokomotiv4-2-3-1

29

▼

Aralica

11

⚽

▼

Brrou

31

⚽

Stanoev

13

▼

Raposo

5

▼

3

12

26

4

47

24

76

4

8

3

5

▼

Baurenski

44

Granchov

11

▼

Mitev

39

▼

Vutov

16

⚽

Ilić

14

⚽

▼

Ivey

29

⚽

Ahmedov

Manager: I. Tsvetanov

54'▲P. Konaté←▼V. Mitev

59'▲A. Tsvetkov←▼Y. Baurenski

90+4'▲Berna←▼A. Vutov

90+4'▲R. Dimitrov←▼R. Ivey

Spartak Varna substitutes

21Konaté6Tsvetkov7Berna88Dimitrov17Marinov18Ivanov77Marinov89Videnov99Halachev

Manager: A. Velkov

67'▲V. Nikolov←▼A. Pitsolis

74'▲S. Dikov←▼A. Aralica

74'▲S. Traoré←▼A. Brrou

90+1'▲M. Orachev←▼Celso Raposo

Lokomotiv Sofia substitutes

10Nikolov18Dikov98Traoré44Orachev21Chachev22Naydenov77Manolkov88Istatkov

Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Spartak Varna beat Lokomotiv Sofia 3-2 in First League on October 6, 2024.

Goals: K. Stanoev (2'), A. Brrou (13'), C. Ilić (28'), A. Ahmedov (59'), R. Ivey (90').

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia