Lokomotiv Sofia 0–0 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Sofia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Varna

8/22/2025

First League · Round 6Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia55%

×Draw24%

Spartak Varna20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv SofiaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.91

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.67

Spartak Varna

0.91

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.37

creates per match

0.63

1.19

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.37

Spartak Varna

0.63

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.19

Spartak Varna

1.97

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.10scores more

Spartak Varna+0.02on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw

80%

Lokomotiv Sofia or Spartak Varna

76%

Draw or Spartak Varna

45%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

30%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

81%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

50%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

23%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

60%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

23%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

73%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 17 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.97 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.37 + Spartak Varna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.67

Spartak Varna attack 0.63 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

55%

level

24%

Spartak Varna scores more

20%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Ryan Bidounga

56'

Reyan Daskalov

57'

A. Aralica← Caue Caruzo

57'

Luann← E. Dost

71'

Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo

78'

K. Stanoev← D. Ali

78'

I. Budinov← D. Ivanov

79'

Damyan Yordanov

79'

H. Mitev← B. Katsarov

84'

Octavio← Diego Raposo

87'

I. Aleksiev← D. Halachev

89'

Krasimir Stanoev

90+7'

S. Moukachar← Z. Pehlivanov

Lokomotiv

Spartak

23

20

3

44

88

19

6

▼

Pehlivano

8

▼

Ivanov

7

Berna

21

Xande

9

▼

Halachev

99

Velichkov

2

▼

22

4

91

27

13

▼

Raposo

44

▼

Katsarov

5

▼

Dost

77

▼

Caruzo

7

Delev

57'▲A. Aralica←▼Caue Caruzo

57'▲Luann←▼E. Dost

78'▲K. Stanoev←▼D. Ali

79'▲H. Mitev←▼B. Katsarov

84'▲Octavio←▼Diego Raposo

Lokomotiv Sofia substitutes

24Lyubenov29Aralica31Stanoev21Chachev8Luann15Ivanov3Messi58Octavio23Mitev

78'▲I. Budinov←▼D. Ivanov

87'▲I. Aleksiev←▼D. Halachev

90+7'▲S. Moukachar←▼Z. Pehlivanov

Spartak Varna substitutes

1Shalamanov-Trenkov4Aleksiev18Moukachar22Yanchev39Kurbanov50Budinov77Aleksandrov93Pahama