Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 11+ matches
Spartak Varna37%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 14 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Spartak Varna ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.80 · 14 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Spartak Varna attack 1.15 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42
Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.07 + Spartak Varna defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
Beroe
Etar Veliko TarnovoLokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
Septemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Vereya Stara ZagoraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Spartak Varna host Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Wednesday, 23 October 2024 at 14:30. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 in First League on October 23, 2024.
Goals: Berna (87').
The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.