Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Spartak Varna

L. Bizjak 66'

F. Strauß 32'

Berna 7'

4/7/2025

First League · Round 28Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv50%

×Draw26%

Spartak Varna24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv PlovdivExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.94

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.50

Spartak Varna

0.94

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 60% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

1.03

creates per match

0.63

1.25

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.03

Spartak Varna

0.63

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.25

Spartak Varna

1.97

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv-0.03on par

Spartak Varna+0.02on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

76%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Spartak Varna

74%

Draw or Spartak Varna

50%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

25%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

78%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

44%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

19%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

61%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

24%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

68%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.97 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.03 + Spartak Varna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.50

Spartak Varna attack 0.63 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

50%

level

26%

Spartak Varna scores more

24%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

P. Umarbayev

Lokomotiv Plovdiv · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

30'

32'

58'

58'

D. Iliev← Diogo Abreu

58'

66'

72'

72'

83'

86'

Xande← R. Ivey

86'

G. Akuowua← Y. Baurenski

90+5'

P. Konaté← V. Mitev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LokomotivSpartak

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots7

0.78Expected Goals (xG)1.05

8Corners2

12Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots7

6On Target2

7Off Target4

1Blocked1

6Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

499Total Passes305

398Accurate Passes191

80%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 in First League on April 7, 2025.

Goals: Berna (7'), F. Strauß (32'), L. Bizjak (66').

Lokomotiv Plovdiv controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna