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Spartak Varna vs Kaliakra 1923 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
1 – 1
Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
10/13/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 8Stadion Lokomotiv (Varna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Spartak Varna85%
×Draw11%
Kaliakra 19234%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
2.92
Kaliakra 1923
0.52

Spartak Varna creates 462% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
3.92
Kaliakra 1923
0.67

allows per match

Spartak Varna
0.36
Kaliakra 1923
1.92

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
96%
Spartak Varna or Kaliakra 1923
89%
Draw or Kaliakra 1923
15%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
66%
Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
94%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
78%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
55%
Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
41%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
10%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
95%
Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 3.92, concedes 0.36 · 25 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 3.92 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.92

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Spartak Varna defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
85%
level
11%
Kaliakra 1923 scores more
4%

Spartak Varna at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Spartak Varna 1–1 Kaliakra 1923

Spartak Varna and Kaliakra 1923 drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv (Varna).