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Kaliakra 1923 vs Spartak Varna — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
FT
0 – 2
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
3/30/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 21Gradski stadion (Kavarna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaliakra 192321%
×Draw20%
Spartak Varna59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaliakra 1923
1.27
Spartak Varna
2.23

Spartak Varna creates 76% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.85
Spartak Varna
2.77

allows per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.69
Spartak Varna
0.69

finishing

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par
Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaliakra 1923 ↓

Spartak Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kaliakra 1923 or draw
41%
Kaliakra 1923 or Spartak Varna
80%
Draw or Spartak Varna
79%

Winning margin

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
8%
Spartak Varna wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
72%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
36%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
14%
Spartak Varna 1+ goals
89%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
65%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
26%
Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaliakra 1923 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaliakra 1923 attack 1.85 + Spartak Varna defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.27

Spartak Varna attack 2.77 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kaliakra 1923 scores more
21%
level
20%
Spartak Varna scores more
59%

Spartak Varna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Kaliakra 1923 0–2 Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna beat Kaliakra 1923 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Kavarna).