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Spartak Varna vs Hitrino — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
4 – 1
Hitrino
Hitrino
3/23/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 20Stadion Lokomotiv (Varna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Spartak Varna83%
×Draw12%
Hitrino5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
2.81
Hitrino
0.55

Spartak Varna creates 411% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
3.92
Hitrino
0.75

allows per match

Spartak Varna
0.36
Hitrino
1.71

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Hitrino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
95%
Spartak Varna or Hitrino
88%
Draw or Hitrino
17%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
63%
Hitrino wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
94%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
76%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
52%
Hitrino 1+ goals
42%
Hitrino 2+ goals
11%
Hitrino 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
94%
Hitrino (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 3.92, concedes 0.36 · 25 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 3.92 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.81

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Spartak Varna defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
83%
level
12%
Hitrino scores more
5%

Spartak Varna at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Varna 4 – 1 Hitrino

Spartak Varna beat Hitrino 4-1 in Third League - Northeast on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv (Varna).