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Hitrino vs Spartak Varna — Third League - Northeast 2018

Hitrino
Hitrino
FT
3 – 3
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
10/6/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 7Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hitrino25%
×Draw21%
Spartak Varna54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitrino
1.32
Spartak Varna
2.04

Spartak Varna creates 55% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hitrino
1.96
Spartak Varna
2.77

allows per match

Hitrino
1.30
Spartak Varna
0.69

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par
Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Spartak Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw
46%
Hitrino or Spartak Varna
79%
Draw or Spartak Varna
75%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+
10%
Spartak Varna wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals
73%
Hitrino 2+ goals
38%
Hitrino 3+ goals
15%
Spartak Varna 1+ goals
87%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
60%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)
31%
Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Spartak Varna defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Spartak Varna attack 2.77 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hitrino scores more
25%
level
21%
Spartak Varna scores more
54%

Spartak Varna at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Hitrino 3–3 Spartak Varna

Hitrino and Spartak Varna drew 3-3 in Third League - Northeast on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen)).