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Spartak Varna vs Bdin — Second League 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bdin
Bdin
8/13/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spartak Varna65%
×Draw22%
Bdin13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
1.78
Bdin
0.64

Spartak Varna creates 178% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
1.63
Bdin
0.47

allows per match

Spartak Varna
0.80
Bdin
1.94

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Bdin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Bdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
87%
Spartak Varna or Bdin
78%
Draw or Bdin
35%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
38%
Bdin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
83%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
53%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
26%
Bdin 1+ goals
47%
Bdin 2+ goals
14%
Bdin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
83%
Bdin (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Bdin away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.63 + Bdin defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bdin attack 0.47 + Spartak Varna defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
65%
level
22%
Bdin scores more
13%

Spartak Varna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Bdin

Spartak Varna beat Bdin 1-0 in Second League on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.