Bdin 0–1 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Bdin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Varna

2/23/2024

Second League · Round 22Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bdin35%

×Draw29%

Spartak Varna36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BdinExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.13

Bdin

1.12

Spartak Varna

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 46 away

0.65

creates per match

1.26

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Bdin

0.65

Spartak Varna

1.26

allows per match

Bdin

1.00

Spartak Varna

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bdin or draw

64%

Bdin or Spartak Varna

71%

Draw or Spartak Varna

65%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+

14%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals

67%

Bdin 2+ goals

31%

Bdin 3+ goals

10%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

68%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

31%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)

50%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 0.65 + Spartak Varna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.12

Spartak Varna attack 1.26 + Bdin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bdin scores more

35%

level

29%

Spartak Varna scores more

36%

Spartak Varna at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff