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Spartak Varna II vs Dorostol — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
FT
2 – 1
Dorostol
Dorostol
3/28/2026Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Spartak Varna II61%
×Draw20%
Dorostol19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna II
2.16
Dorostol
1.12

Spartak Varna II creates 93% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 84 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna II
2.13
Dorostol
1.14

allows per match

Spartak Varna II
1.10
Dorostol
2.19

finishing

Spartak Varna II+0.00on par
Dorostol+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna II ↓

Dorostol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spartak Varna II or draw
81%
Spartak Varna II or Dorostol
80%
Draw or Dorostol
39%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
38%
Dorostol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
88%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
63%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
36%
Dorostol 1+ goals
67%
Dorostol 2+ goals
31%
Dorostol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
76%
Dorostol (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Dorostol away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.19 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna II attack 2.13 + Dorostol defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.16

Dorostol attack 1.14 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Spartak Varna II scores more
61%
level
20%
Dorostol scores more
19%

Spartak Varna II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Spartak Varna II 2–1 Dorostol

Spartak Varna II beat Dorostol 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on March 28, 2026.