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Dorostol vs Spartak Varna II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dorostol
Dorostol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
9/20/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 6Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Dorostol38%
×Draw26%
Spartak Varna II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorostol
1.38
Spartak Varna II
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 70 away

creates per match

Dorostol
1.06
Spartak Varna II
1.24

allows per match

Dorostol
1.49
Spartak Varna II
1.70

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par
Spartak Varna II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Spartak Varna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw
63%
Dorostol or Spartak Varna II
74%
Draw or Spartak Varna II
62%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+
17%
Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals
75%
Dorostol 2+ goals
40%
Dorostol 3+ goals
16%
Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)
51%
Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Spartak Varna II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.38

Spartak Varna II attack 1.24 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dorostol scores more
38%
level
26%
Spartak Varna II scores more
37%

Dorostol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dorostol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorostol vs Spartak Varna II

Dorostol beat Spartak Varna II 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Louis Eyer in Silistra.