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Spartak Tuymazy vs Orenburg II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Orenburg II
Orenburg II
4/24/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Stadion Spartak Tuymazy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spartak Tuymazy47%
×Draw23%
Orenburg II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Tuymazy
1.87
Orenburg II
1.45

Spartak Tuymazy creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Spartak Tuymazy
1.86
Orenburg II
0.83

allows per match

Spartak Tuymazy
2.07
Orenburg II
1.87

finishing

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par
Orenburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Tuymazy ↓

Orenburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Tuymazy or draw
70%
Spartak Tuymazy or Orenburg II
77%
Draw or Orenburg II
53%

Winning margin

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
26%
Orenburg II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
85%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
56%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
29%
Orenburg II 1+ goals
77%
Orenburg II 2+ goals
42%
Orenburg II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
61%
Orenburg II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Tuymazy at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Orenburg II away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.86 + Orenburg II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.87

Orenburg II attack 0.83 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spartak Tuymazy scores more
47%
level
23%
Orenburg II scores more
30%

Spartak Tuymazy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartak Tuymazy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Spartak Tuymazy 1–2 Orenburg II

Orenburg II beat Spartak Tuymazy 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak Tuymazy in Tuymazy.