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Orenburg II vs Spartak Tuymazy — Second League - Group 4 2020

Orenburg II
Orenburg II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
8/30/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Orenburg II49%
×Draw22%
Spartak Tuymazy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg II
2.02
Spartak Tuymazy
1.52

Orenburg II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

creates per match

Orenburg II
1.33
Spartak Tuymazy
1.36

allows per match

Orenburg II
1.68
Spartak Tuymazy
2.71

finishing

Orenburg II+0.00on par
Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg II ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Orenburg II or draw
71%
Orenburg II or Spartak Tuymazy
78%
Draw or Spartak Tuymazy
51%

Winning margin

Orenburg II wins by 2+
28%
Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orenburg II 1+ goals
87%
Orenburg II 2+ goals
60%
Orenburg II 3+ goals
33%
Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
78%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
45%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Orenburg II (draw refunded)
63%
Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 84 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg II attack 1.33 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.02

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Orenburg II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Orenburg II scores more
49%
level
22%
Spartak Tuymazy scores more
29%

Orenburg II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Orenburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orenburg II vs Spartak Tuymazy

Spartak Tuymazy beat Orenburg II 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on August 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.