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Spartak Tuymazy vs Lada Tolyatti — Second League - Group 4 2020

Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
FT
7 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
8/1/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Spartak Tuymazy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spartak Tuymazy59%
×Draw19%
Lada Tolyatti21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Tuymazy
2.40
Lada Tolyatti
1.39

Spartak Tuymazy creates 73% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 41 away

creates per match

Spartak Tuymazy
1.86
Lada Tolyatti
0.71

allows per match

Spartak Tuymazy
2.07
Lada Tolyatti
2.93

finishing

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par
Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Tuymazy ↓

Lada Tolyatti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Spartak Tuymazy or draw
79%
Spartak Tuymazy or Lada Tolyatti
81%
Draw or Lada Tolyatti
41%

Winning margin

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
38%
Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
91%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
69%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
42%
Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
75%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
40%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
74%
Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Tuymazy at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.86 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.40

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Spartak Tuymazy scores more
59%
level
19%
Lada Tolyatti scores more
21%

Spartak Tuymazy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Spartak Tuymazy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Tuymazy vs Lada Tolyatti

Spartak Tuymazy beat Lada Tolyatti 7-2 in Second League - Group 4 on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak Tuymazy in Tuymazy.