Lada Tolyatti 2–1 Spartak Tuymazy: Result & Stats

Lada Tolyatti

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Tuymazy

5/21/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lada Tolyatti39%

×Draw22%

Spartak Tuymazy39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lada TolyattiExpected goals in this matchSpartak Tuymazy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.83

Lada Tolyatti

1.85

Spartak Tuymazy

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.36

2.29

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti

1.00

Spartak Tuymazy

1.36

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti

2.29

Spartak Tuymazy

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw

61%

Lada Tolyatti or Spartak Tuymazy

78%

Draw or Spartak Tuymazy

61%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

21%

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

84%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

55%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

28%

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals

84%

Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals

54%

Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

51%

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more

39%

level

22%

Spartak Tuymazy scores more

39%

Lada Tolyatti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lada Tolyatti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff