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Spartak Trnava W vs Slovan Bratislava W — I Liga - Women 2020

Spartak Trnava W
Spartak Trnava W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Slovan Bratislava W
Slovan Bratislava W
9/7/2024I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 5Športový areál ŠK Blava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Spartak Trnava W29%
×Draw19%
Slovan Bratislava W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Trnava W
1.96
Slovan Bratislava W
2.67

Slovan Bratislava W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

creates per match

Spartak Trnava W
2.82
Slovan Bratislava W
3.58

allows per match

Spartak Trnava W
1.76
Slovan Bratislava W
1.09

finishing

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par
Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava W ↓

Slovan Bratislava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava W or draw
47%
Spartak Trnava W or Slovan Bratislava W
81%
Draw or Slovan Bratislava W
71%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+
14%
Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals
86%
Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals
58%
Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals
31%
Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals
93%
Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals
74%
Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)
35%
Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava W at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

Slovan Bratislava W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.09 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava W attack 2.82 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.96

Slovan Bratislava W attack 3.58 + Spartak Trnava W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Spartak Trnava W scores more
29%
level
19%
Slovan Bratislava W scores more
53%

Slovan Bratislava W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Spartak Trnava W 0–4 Slovan Bratislava W

Slovan Bratislava W beat Spartak Trnava W 4-0 in I Liga - Women on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Športový areál ŠK Blava in Jaslovské Bohunice.