Slovan Bratislava W 5–2 Spartak Trnava W

Slovan Bratislava W

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Spartak Trnava W

11/16/2024

I Liga - Women · Round 14Umelá tráva Rapid Ružinov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Slovan Bratislava W76%

×Draw13%

Spartak Trnava W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Bratislava WExpected goals in this matchSpartak Trnava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.34

1.25

Slovan Bratislava W

3.34

Spartak Trnava W

1.25

Slovan Bratislava W creates 167% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

4.14

creates per match

1.55

0.96

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava W

4.14

Spartak Trnava W

1.55

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava W

0.96

Spartak Trnava W

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava W ↓

Spartak Trnava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava W or draw

89%

Slovan Bratislava W or Spartak Trnava W

87%

Draw or Spartak Trnava W

24%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+

57%

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals

96%

Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals

84%

Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals

63%

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals

71%

Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals

36%

Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)

87%

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava W at home — creates 4.14, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

Spartak Trnava W away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.54 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava W attack 4.14 + Spartak Trnava W defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 3.34

Spartak Trnava W attack 1.55 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Slovan Bratislava W scores more

76%

level

13%

Spartak Trnava W scores more

11%

Slovan Bratislava W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff