Spartak Trnava W 9–0 Nové Zámky W: Result & Stats

Spartak Trnava W

FT

9 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Nové Zámky W

3/18/2023

I Liga - Women · Round 18Športový areál ŠK Blava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Spartak Trnava W79%

×Draw12%

Nové Zámky W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Trnava WExpected goals in this matchNové Zámky W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.66

1.25

Spartak Trnava W

3.66

Nové Zámky W

1.25

Spartak Trnava W creates 193% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

2.82

creates per match

0.73

1.76

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Spartak Trnava W

2.82

Nové Zámky W

0.73

allows per match

Spartak Trnava W

1.76

Nové Zámky W

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava W ↓

Nové Zámky W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava W or draw

91%

Spartak Trnava W or Nové Zámky W

88%

Draw or Nové Zámky W

21%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+

62%

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals

97%

Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals

87%

Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals

68%

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals

71%

Nové Zámky W 2+ goals

36%

Nové Zámky W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)

90%

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava W at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

Nové Zámky W away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava W attack 2.82 + Nové Zámky W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.66

Nové Zámky W attack 0.73 + Spartak Trnava W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Spartak Trnava W scores more

79%

level

12%

Nové Zámky W scores more

9%

Spartak Trnava W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Spartak Trnava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff