Nové Zámky W 1–1 Spartak Trnava W: Result & Stats

Nové Zámky W

FT

1 – 1

Spartak Trnava W

8/21/2021

I Liga - Women · Round 4Štadión na Sihoti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nové Zámky W34%

×Draw20%

Spartak Trnava W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové Zámky WExpected goals in this matchSpartak Trnava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

2.27

Nové Zámky W

1.93

Spartak Trnava W

2.27

Spartak Trnava W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 69 away

1.31

creates per match

1.55

3.00

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Nové Zámky W

1.31

Spartak Trnava W

1.55

allows per match

Nové Zámky W

3.00

Spartak Trnava W

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky W ↓

Spartak Trnava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Nové Zámky W or draw

54%

Nové Zámky W or Spartak Trnava W

80%

Draw or Spartak Trnava W

66%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+

18%

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals

85%

Nové Zámky W 2+ goals

57%

Nové Zámky W 3+ goals

30%

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals

90%

Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals

66%

Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)

42%

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 26 matches

Spartak Trnava W away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.54 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky W attack 1.31 + Spartak Trnava W defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Spartak Trnava W attack 1.55 + Nové Zámky W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nové Zámky W scores more

34%

level

20%

Spartak Trnava W scores more

46%

Spartak Trnava W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Trnava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff