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Spartak Trnava vs Ludogorets — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Spartak Trnava
Spartak Trnava
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
11/30/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spartak Trnava67%
×Draw18%
Ludogorets15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Trnava
2.34
Ludogorets
1.00

Spartak Trnava creates 134% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Spartak Trnava
1.93
Ludogorets
1.00

allows per match

Spartak Trnava
1.00
Ludogorets
2.75

finishing

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava or draw
85%
Spartak Trnava or Ludogorets
82%
Draw or Ludogorets
33%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+
44%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals
90%
Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
67%
Spartak Trnava 3+ goals
41%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
63%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
26%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)
82%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava attack 1.93 + Ludogorets defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.34

Ludogorets attack 1.00 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Spartak Trnava scores more
67%
level
18%
Ludogorets scores more
15%

Spartak Trnava at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Spartak Trnava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Spartak Trnava 1–2 Ludogorets

Ludogorets beat Spartak Trnava 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského in Trnava.