Ludogorets 4–0 Spartak Trnava: Result & Stats

Ludogorets

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Trnava

9/21/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 1Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ludogorets68%

×Draw22%

Spartak Trnava10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchSpartak Trnava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.47

Ludogorets

1.72

Spartak Trnava

0.47

Ludogorets creates 266% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.60

creates per match

0.75

0.20

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Ludogorets

1.60

Spartak Trnava

0.75

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.20

Spartak Trnava

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Spartak Trnava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

90%

Ludogorets or Spartak Trnava

78%

Draw or Spartak Trnava

32%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

40%

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

82%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

51%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

25%

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals

37%

Spartak Trnava 2+ goals

8%

Spartak Trnava 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

88%

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Spartak Trnava away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 1.60 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Spartak Trnava attack 0.75 + Ludogorets defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ludogorets scores more

68%

level

22%

Spartak Trnava scores more

10%

Ludogorets at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff