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Spartak Trnava vs Fenerbahçe — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Spartak Trnava
Spartak Trnava
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
10/5/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spartak Trnava45%
×Draw23%
Fenerbahçe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Trnava
1.80
Fenerbahçe
1.50

Spartak Trnava creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Spartak Trnava
1.93
Fenerbahçe
2.00

allows per match

Spartak Trnava
1.00
Fenerbahçe
1.67

finishing

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava or draw
68%
Spartak Trnava or Fenerbahçe
77%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
55%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+
24%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals
83%
Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
54%
Spartak Trnava 3+ goals
27%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
78%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
44%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)
58%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava attack 1.93 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Fenerbahçe attack 2.00 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spartak Trnava scores more
45%
level
23%
Fenerbahçe scores more
32%

Spartak Trnava at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Trnava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Spartak Trnava 1–2 Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat Spartak Trnava 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského in Trnava.