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Fenerbahçe vs Spartak Trnava — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Trnava
Spartak Trnava
12/14/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fenerbahçe72%
×Draw17%
Spartak Trnava11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fenerbahçe
2.48
Spartak Trnava
0.88

Fenerbahçe creates 182% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fenerbahçe
3.13
Spartak Trnava
0.75

allows per match

Fenerbahçe
1.00
Spartak Trnava
1.83

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par
Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Spartak Trnava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw
89%
Fenerbahçe or Spartak Trnava
83%
Draw or Spartak Trnava
28%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
50%
Spartak Trnava wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
92%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
70%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
44%
Spartak Trnava 1+ goals
59%
Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
22%
Spartak Trnava 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
86%
Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Spartak Trnava away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 3.13 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.48

Spartak Trnava attack 0.75 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more
72%
level
17%
Spartak Trnava scores more
11%

Fenerbahçe at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fenerbahçe vs Spartak Trnava

Fenerbahçe beat Spartak Trnava 4-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 14, 2023.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.