Spartak Trnava 0–2 FC Nordsjaelland: Result & Stats

Spartak Trnava

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Nordsjaelland

10/26/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Spartak Trnava47%

×Draw28%

FC Nordsjaelland25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak TrnavaExpected goals in this matchFC Nordsjaelland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.90

Spartak Trnava

1.36

FC Nordsjaelland

0.90

Spartak Trnava creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

1.93

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Spartak Trnava

1.93

FC Nordsjaelland

0.80

allows per match

Spartak Trnava

1.00

FC Nordsjaelland

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava or draw

75%

Spartak Trnava or FC Nordsjaelland

72%

Draw or FC Nordsjaelland

53%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+

23%

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals

74%

Spartak Trnava 2+ goals

39%

Spartak Trnava 3+ goals

16%

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

59%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

23%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)

66%

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava attack 1.93 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

FC Nordsjaelland attack 0.80 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spartak Trnava scores more

47%

level

28%

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

25%

Spartak Trnava at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartak Trnava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff