FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 Spartak Trnava: Result & Stats

FC Nordsjaelland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Trnava

11/9/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland83%

×Draw11%

Spartak Trnava6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NordsjaellandExpected goals in this matchSpartak Trnava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.02

0.68

FC Nordsjaelland

3.02

Spartak Trnava

0.68

FC Nordsjaelland creates 344% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

4.20

creates per match

0.75

0.60

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland

4.20

Spartak Trnava

0.75

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland

0.60

Spartak Trnava

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Spartak Trnava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw

94%

FC Nordsjaelland or Spartak Trnava

89%

Draw or Spartak Trnava

17%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

64%

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

95%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

80%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

57%

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals

49%

Spartak Trnava 2+ goals

15%

Spartak Trnava 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

94%

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 4.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Spartak Trnava away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 4.20 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 3.02

Spartak Trnava attack 0.75 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

83%

level

11%

Spartak Trnava scores more

6%

FC Nordsjaelland at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff