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Spartak Trnava vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — League #332 2026

Spartak Trnava
Spartak Trnava
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
2/24/2024League #332League #332 · Round 21CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spartak Trnava53%
×Draw26%
Dukla Banská Bystrica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Trnava
1.48
Dukla Banská Bystrica
0.82

Spartak Trnava creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Spartak Trnava
1.33
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.07

allows per match

Spartak Trnava
0.56
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.64

finishing

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava or draw
79%
Spartak Trnava or Dukla Banská Bystrica
74%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
47%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+
27%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals
77%
Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
43%
Spartak Trnava 3+ goals
19%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
56%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
20%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)
72%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava attack 1.33 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.07 + Spartak Trnava defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Spartak Trnava scores more
53%
level
26%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
21%

Spartak Trnava at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spartak Trnava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #332: Spartak Trnava 2–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica

Spartak Trnava beat Dukla Banská Bystrica 2-0 in League #332 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského in Trnava.