Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–2 Spartak Trnava

Dukla Banská Bystrica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Trnava

M. Hlinka 82'

M. Ristovski 59'

K. Ofori 40'

10/8/2023

League #332 · Round 10Štadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica22%

×Draw21%

Spartak Trnava57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Banská BystricaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Trnava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.08

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.23

Spartak Trnava

2.08

Spartak Trnava creates 69% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.27

creates per match

1.80

2.36

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.27

Spartak Trnava

1.80

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

2.36

Spartak Trnava

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Spartak Trnava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw

43%

Dukla Banská Bystrica or Spartak Trnava

79%

Draw or Spartak Trnava

78%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

9%

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

71%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

35%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

13%

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals

87%

Spartak Trnava 2+ goals

61%

Spartak Trnava 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

28%

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Spartak Trnava away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.27 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Spartak Trnava attack 1.80 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

22%

level

21%

Spartak Trnava scores more

57%

Spartak Trnava at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spartak Trnava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

48'

51'

53'

59'

M. Ristovski↳ K. Ofori

63'

Marek Ujlaky

68'

A. Zeljković← F. Bainovič

71'

D. Depetris← Enzo Arevalo

71'

B. Ľupták← T. Záhumenský

76'

M. Ďuriš← M. Ristovski

76'

J. Bernát← P. Azango

77'

A. Hanes← M. Pišoja

77'

J. Považanec← D. Richtárech

82'

M. Hlinka↳ J. Považanec

90+3'

M. Breznik← M. Mikovič

Shots

Statistics

DuklaSpartak

Overview

12Total Shots16

6Corners6

13Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots16

5On Target8

4Off Target5

3Blocked3

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0