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Spartak Soběslav vs Hořovicko — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hořovicko
Hořovicko
3/21/20264. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 18Stadium Sobeslav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Spartak Soběslav62%
×Draw19%
Hořovicko18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Soběslav
2.29
Hořovicko
1.17

Spartak Soběslav creates 96% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

creates per match

Spartak Soběslav
2.65
Hořovicko
1.27

allows per match

Spartak Soběslav
1.07
Hořovicko
1.93

finishing

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par
Hořovicko+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Soběslav ↓

Hořovicko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Spartak Soběslav or draw
82%
Spartak Soběslav or Hořovicko
81%
Draw or Hořovicko
38%

Winning margin

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
40%
Hořovicko wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
90%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
66%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
40%
Hořovicko 1+ goals
69%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
33%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
77%
Hořovicko (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Soběslav at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

Hořovicko away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Soběslav attack 2.65 + Hořovicko defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.29

Hořovicko attack 1.27 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Spartak Soběslav scores more
62%
level
19%
Hořovicko scores more
18%

Spartak Soběslav at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Spartak Soběslav 4–1 Hořovicko

Spartak Soběslav beat Hořovicko 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadium Sobeslav in Sobeslav.