Hořovicko 2–2 Spartak Soběslav: Result & Stats

Hořovicko

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Soběslav

3/15/2025

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 17Hořovice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Hořovicko36%

×Draw24%

Spartak Soběslav40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HořovickoExpected goals in this matchSpartak Soběslav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.64

Hořovicko

1.54

Spartak Soběslav

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

1.40

creates per match

1.73

1.55

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Hořovicko

1.40

Spartak Soběslav

1.73

allows per match

Hořovicko

1.55

Spartak Soběslav

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hořovicko+0.00on par

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hořovicko ↓

Spartak Soběslav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hořovicko or draw

60%

Hořovicko or Spartak Soběslav

76%

Draw or Spartak Soběslav

64%

Winning margin

Hořovicko wins by 2+

17%

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hořovicko 1+ goals

79%

Hořovicko 2+ goals

45%

Hořovicko 3+ goals

20%

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals

81%

Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals

49%

Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hořovicko (draw refunded)

47%

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hořovicko at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hořovicko attack 1.40 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Hořovicko defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hořovicko scores more

36%

level

24%

Spartak Soběslav scores more

40%

Spartak Soběslav at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff