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Spartak Soběslav vs Horní Bříza — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
10/1/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spartak Soběslav77%
×Draw14%
Horní Bříza8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Soběslav
2.63
Horní Bříza
0.74

Spartak Soběslav creates 255% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Spartak Soběslav
2.65
Horní Bříza
0.40

allows per match

Spartak Soběslav
1.07
Horní Bříza
2.60

finishing

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par
Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Soběslav ↓

Horní Bříza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Soběslav or draw
92%
Spartak Soběslav or Horní Bříza
86%
Draw or Horní Bříza
23%

Winning margin

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
56%
Horní Bříza wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
93%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
73%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
48%
Horní Bříza 1+ goals
52%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
17%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
90%
Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Soběslav at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

Horní Bříza away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Soběslav attack 2.65 + Horní Bříza defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.63

Horní Bříza attack 0.40 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Spartak Soběslav scores more
77%
level
14%
Horní Bříza scores more
8%

Spartak Soběslav at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Soběslav 2 – 0 Horní Bříza

Spartak Soběslav beat Horní Bříza 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav in Soběslav.