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Horní Bříza vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
4/29/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 24Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Horní Bříza23%
×Draw21%
Spartak Soběslav57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Bříza
1.28
Spartak Soběslav
2.13

Spartak Soběslav creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Horní Bříza
0.87
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Horní Bříza
2.53
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Horní Bříza+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Bříza ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Horní Bříza or draw
43%
Horní Bříza or Spartak Soběslav
79%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
77%

Winning margin

Horní Bříza wins by 2+
9%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Horní Bříza 1+ goals
72%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
37%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
14%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
88%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
63%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
29%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Bříza at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Bříza attack 0.87 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Horní Bříza defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Horní Bříza scores more
23%
level
21%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
57%

Spartak Soběslav at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Horní Bříza 2–4 Spartak Soběslav

Spartak Soběslav beat Horní Bříza 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza in Horní Bříza.