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Spartak Soběslav vs Český lev - Union Beroun — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
CANC
15:00
Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
5/22/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 25Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Spartak Soběslav76%
×Draw14%
Český lev - Union Beroun10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Soběslav
2.83
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.92

Spartak Soběslav creates 208% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 25 away

creates per match

Spartak Soběslav
2.65
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.76

allows per match

Spartak Soběslav
1.07
Český lev - Union Beroun
3.00

finishing

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par
Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Soběslav ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Spartak Soběslav or draw
90%
Spartak Soběslav or Český lev - Union Beroun
86%
Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun
24%

Winning margin

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
56%
Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
94%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
77%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
53%
Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
60%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
23%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
89%
Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Soběslav at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Soběslav attack 2.65 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Spartak Soběslav scores more
76%
level
14%
Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
10%

Spartak Soběslav at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Soběslav face Český lev - Union Beroun (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Spartak Soběslav hosting Český lev - Union Beroun. Match starts May 22, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spartak Soběslav host Český lev - Union Beroun at Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.