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Český lev - Union Beroun vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
FT
1 – 3
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
10/12/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 10Stadion Na Máchovně (Beroun)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun31%
×Draw22%
Spartak Soběslav47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.49
Spartak Soběslav
1.89

Spartak Soběslav creates 27% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 86 away

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.29
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw
53%
Český lev - Union Beroun or Spartak Soběslav
78%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
69%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
14%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
77%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
44%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
85%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
56%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
39%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.49

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
31%
level
22%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
47%

Spartak Soběslav at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Český lev - Union Beroun 1–3 Spartak Soběslav

Spartak Soběslav beat Český lev - Union Beroun 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Na Máchovně (Beroun).